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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-07-01 22:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Since the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has consolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and southern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A blend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free environment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is about the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows remnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5. The latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04. A weakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result in a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the track toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the cyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and then the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the far left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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