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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-07-02 04:56:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020256 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Douglas has maintained a tight curved band of deep convection near its center, primarily within the western semicircle. Consequently, the TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI numbers have remained the same and thus the intensity is kept at 40 kt. While Douglas should remain under light vertical shear for the next few days, the gradually cooling waters and drier stable air that the cyclone will encounter should cause the convection to diminish and, in about 36-48 hours, eventually to cease. The large size of Douglas suggests that it will wind down gradually, even if the convection dissipates quicker than expected. The intensity forecast is based upon the tight consensus of intensity models and is nearly the same as that in the previous advisory. Douglas has been meandering this evening with a longer-term motion of 340/2. The steering for the cyclone has nearly collapsed as the mid-level ridge to the north has weakened due to a short-wave trough impinging upon it. As Douglas becomes a weaker, shallower vortex, it should be advected faster toward the west-northwest in about 3 days and then westward by day 5 in the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered multi-model consensus - TVCE - with somewhat less weight placed upon the ECMWF model, since this model has had a distinct equatorward bias for Douglas. This track prediction is slightly poleward of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.4N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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