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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-07-02 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020855 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 A flareup of deep convection in the northern semicircle has developed during the past few hours even though Douglas is now moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. A 02/0528 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated a couple of 39-kt wind vectors in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward or 325/03 kt. Steering currents surrounding the cyclone are expected to remain weak for the next couple of days as Douglas remains trapped in a weakness in the subtropical ridge that extends from Baja California westward across the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone weakens over colder water and becomes more vertically shallow, it should be steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow by day 3 and beyond. The track forecast is is similar to the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus track model TVCE. Despite the recent aforementioned resurgence in convection and very light vertical wind shear, Douglas is not long for this world. The cyclone is currently located over sub-26C SSTs, and the water ahead of the cyclone only gets colder while the surrounding air mass is becoming drier and more stable as well. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast by 12 hours and beyond, and Douglas is expected to become a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous forecast and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.8N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.6N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 22.2N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.0N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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