je.st
news
Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-07-03 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030237 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with -70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast portion of the cyclone. A compromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An intruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing sea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is forecast to become a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low near the 36 hr period. Douglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending across the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight increase in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually strengthens. By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a remnant low and continue on this general track through the remainder of the forecast. The official NHC forecast track is slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
douglas
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||