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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-07-03 10:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030848 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle, thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation, including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but just south of the consensus model TVCE. Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with most of the available intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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