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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and possibly an ASCAT pass later today. Regardless, cold water and dry, stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast by day 5. The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt. A mid-level high centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift westward during the next 48 hours. At the same time, mid-level ridging will build over the western United States. Douglas is therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after 36 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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