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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-07-05 04:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 Douglas is hanging on as a tropical storm. After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to the northeast of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern T-number of 2.5 from TAFB. Douglas is currently over cold 23C waters and in a stable airmass. These hostile conditions should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours. This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast. The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system on a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days. The track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and is very near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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