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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-06-30 04:48:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300247 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved during the past several hours. Deep convection has increased near the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 kt. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the eastern Pacific. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Later in the period, Douglas should turn westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north Douglas gets before making the westward turn. For now, the NHC track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model envelope. This is close to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. The main inhibiting factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. This should cause gradual weakening and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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