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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-06-30 10:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Douglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory package. The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but continues to have limited deep convection near its center. The current intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass. This is only slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS. Latest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the initial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous estimates. Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas. The global models show a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so. This should result in an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or northwest. Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens somewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering by the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed. The latest official forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close to the newest dynamical model consensus. The storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there is well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system. Vertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given the favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 16.6N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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