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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-06-30 16:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301434 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours. The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the convective banding features being well removed from the center. The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas' forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE. Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days. After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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