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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-23 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230837 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the cyclone during the past several hours. While the circulation is still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant. Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind speed has been set to 35 kt. Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear, weakening should begin on Wednesday. In a couple of days, SSTs near 24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC intensity prediction is close to the previous one. The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center trying to reform near the strong convection to the south. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion generally toward the northwest by Wednesday. As Dalila weakens, it will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the low-level flow. Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus model TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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