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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-07-23 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 612 WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory. Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected 35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24 hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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