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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-24 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila has changed little during the last several hours. The storm remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial intensity is held at that value. Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed for even cooler waters. In addition, a field of stratocumulus clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass. These conditions should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in a day or so. The global models show the remnant low opening up into a trough in a few days or less. The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning to the left. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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