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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-06-25 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Daniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery indicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a single burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass around 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure of the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The tropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it is likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually spin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep convection within the next 48 h. Essentially no change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to dissipate by 96 hours. Several recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the tropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a result, the official track forecast has been nudged in that direction for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the previous advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in the reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still expected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it moves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel becomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the middle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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