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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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