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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-22 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt. The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so. Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered consensus aids and the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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