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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-12 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 122036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured a minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard. This leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another sonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data, and this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some disruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite images indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this time. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow is expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual strengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear, and the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11 kt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of the subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force the cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated. There is high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since the dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.5N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 21.8N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 23.2N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 37.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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