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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-06-30 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 302046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at 1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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