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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-01 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which shows no important change in strength in 5 days. Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical storm warning would likely be discontinued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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