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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-07-17 16:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Enrique has changed little in organization over the past several hours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north of the center. There is no recent scatterometer data from the central core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory. The cyclone should decay over sea surface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so. It should be noted that while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after 96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than 120 hours. The initial motion is now 270/3. The track guidance suggests that Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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