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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-07-07 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO SIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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