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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-07-07 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072042 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR. ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/9. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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