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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-07-08 04:52:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080252 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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