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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-07-08 16:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND AN 0502 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PROBABLY NO GREATER THAN 40 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KT. ERICK IS TRAVERSING OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY BENEATH THE CYCLONE IS LESS THAN 25C. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES THAT ERICK WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE 0502 ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. ERICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE REMNANTS WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE NEW INITIAL POSITION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 23.2N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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