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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 15
2013-07-08 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 108.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN SINALOA... AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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