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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-07-07 16:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 6 18 38 46 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 13 25 39 42 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 86 76 61 40 20 13 NA HURRICANE 12 10 8 4 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 9 8 4 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 29(31) 10(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 20(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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