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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-07-18 10:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180849 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Estelle has changed little overall since the previous advisory due to the combined effects of moderate northwesterly wind shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air. The result has been the inability of the cyclone to develop a persistent eye feature in microwave satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been maintained at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, which is supported by a 0432Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass that contained a couple of wind speeds of 50-55 kt. The initial motion estimates remains a steady 290/08kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Estelle is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72-96 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5 when the cyclone moves into a developing break in the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and then is shifted slightly northward in line with the trend in the guidance. Estelle still has about another 36 hours or so to strengthen, during which time the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and SSTs remain above 26 deg C. Thereafter, steady weakening is expected due to SSTs decreasing below 25 deg C around 48 h and to 23 deg C by 96 h. The new intensity forecast to the similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.2N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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