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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-18 16:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181450 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Although the cloud tops are not as cold as they were yesterday, the area of convection is a little more symmetric around the center indicating that the northwesterly shear is relaxing. A couple of recent microwave images also show less tilt between the low- and mid-level centers, however the inner core is still not well organized. The initial wind speed is maintained at 60 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. An automated weather station on Clarion Island, about 35 n mi north of the center, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 71 kt. The vertical wind shear over Estelle is forecast to become very low later today, and remain light during the next few days. Since the tropical storm is forecast to remain over warm water for another 36 hours or so, modest strengthening is still anticipated and the NHC forecast and most of the guidance still calls for Estelle to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. In 36 to 48 h, the cyclone will be moving over decreasing SSTs which should commence the weakening process. A faster rate of weakening should begin by 72 hours, when Estelle moves over SSTs below 24C and into a more stable airmass. The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Estelle should move west-northwestward to the south of the subtropical ridge during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Island should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement, but most of the typically better performing models are along the northern side of the guidance envelope. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a little north of the multi-model consensus and is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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