je.st
news
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-18 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Banding features associated with Estelle have become a little better defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks an inner core. In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to show a large radius of maximum winds. Satellite classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past 24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this advisory. Estelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result of shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air. Since the shear appears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to remain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that Estelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane status. However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone consolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to forecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast once again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours. After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less favorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster rate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast period when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is predicted to become post-tropical on day 4. Recent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west- northwestward. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Estelle should continue west-northwestward for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast lies between the typically better performing global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||