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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-19 04:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 The satellite presentation of Estelle has degraded a bit in the past few hours with some warming cloud-top temperatures noted near the center. Convective towers have been seemingly just rotating around the center without any appreciable increase in inner-core structure. Satellite classifications have dropped a bit, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. It is a little puzzling why Estelle has not intensified but it is likely related to the cyclone's large size and radius of maximum wind, along with any lingering dry mid-level air. With Estelle remaining over warm water and experiencing light shear for the next day or so, it makes sense to think the earlier negative conditions would eventually be overcome. There is a split tonight in the guidance, however, with the statistical-dynamical aids (SHIPS/LGEM) basically showing no intensification, while the regional dynamical models (HWRF/GFDL) are forecasting Estelle to become a hurricane. Given what has occurred so far, it is prudent to drop the intensity forecast from the previous one, but not yet give up on Estelle becoming a hurricane. A more consistent weakening should begin in a couple of days over cool waters, with remnant low status likely by day 4. Microwave and satellite data indicate that Estelle continues to move west-northwestward. A large ridge over the eastern Pacific has been providing a steady steering current for the cyclone. Estelle should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast remains very close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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