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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-19 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191444 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Estelle has a well-defined low-level structure with an eye-feature noted in an early morning GPM microwave overpass. However, the convection surrounding the low-level center has not been particularity deep or persistent. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0, but objective estimates are lower and until the convection is able to maintain itself around the center, I have elected to maintain the previous intensity of 55 kt. Estelle has a little more than 24 hours remaining over warm water and in a low vertical wind shear environment. Most of the intensity guidance calls for little change in strength, but the NHC forecast will once again show Estelle reaching hurricane strength given the good low-level structure and seemingly favorable conditions. After 24 hours, Estelle will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should lead to steady weakening and degeneration into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The tropical storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estelle is expected to move on a west to west-northwestward track to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. A mid- to upper-level forecast to drop south-southwestward between 140W and 150W is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge after day 3. As a result, Estelle is predicted to turn northwestward later in the forecast period. The model guidance continued to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.8N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.2N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.6N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 29.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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