je.st
news
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-07-20 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200250 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Convection near the center of Estelle has deepened and become more symmetric this evening. Microwave data show some improvement in inner-core structure as well, although the low- and mid-level centers are still somewhat separated. Subjective Dvorak classifications are a little higher than 6 hours ago, so the wind speed is raised to 60 kt. Little significant change in strength is forecast overnight since the cyclone is quickly approaching cooler waters. With the recent upward trends in organization, however, Estelle could sneak up to hurricane intensity during that time, and this is reflected in the official forecast. A gradual weakening should begin by late Wednesday since Estelle will be moving over much cooler waters, with remnant low status likely by late Friday. The new NHC prediction is similar to the previous one and the intensity consensus, adjusted slightly higher for the initial wind speed. In contrast to the tricky intensity forecasts for Estelle, the track forecasts have been straightforward. A persistent subtropical ridge should continue to steer the storm westward to west- northwestward for the next couple of days. The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast to erode in about 72 hours, which will likely cause Estelle or its remnants to turn northwestward by day 4. Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, with a westward shift to the latest NHC track forecast to better reflect the newest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||