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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-17 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A large burst of deep convection developed over the center of Estelle overnight and continues this morning. A timely SSMIS microwave overpass was very helpful in examining the structure and center location of the tropical cyclone. The microwave data revealed a well-defined low-level ring located near the northwestern edge of the primary convective band, but there was no evidence of a mid-level eye. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.5 and 4.0, respectively, and UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have risen to T3.5/55 kt. These data support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of Estelle should keep the tropical cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Estelle will be approaching the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the tropical cyclone to gain more latitude. The guidance is more tightly clustered today than it was 24 hours ago, so there is increased confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track is near the Florida State Superensemble and an average of the GFS/ECMWF models. There appears to be some north or northwesterly shear still affecting Estelle, but the shear is not expected to be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next day or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax, and Estelle is forecast to strengthen at a faster rate on Monday. The track of the tropical cyclone brings it over cooler waters in 2 to 3 days, which should start the weakening process, and it should continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the intensity consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 17.9N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 122.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 20.8N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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