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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-12 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida's last remaining deep convection dissipated just after the issuance of the previous advisory, brought on by cold ocean water of only 22-23 degrees Celsius. Of the two ASCAT passes near the cyclone today, neither caught the likely area of strongest winds. Therefore, the maximum winds are lowered to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective estimates between 45-55 kt and objective numbers between 30-40 kt. Cold water and increasing shear should continue Elida's quick weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, barring the unlikely chance that deep convection redevelops. The remnant low is then forecast to dissipate in 48 hours in accordance with global model guidance. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending southwest of California, which has caused a break in the subtropical ridge, is expected to allow Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward soon. This forecast reasoning has not changed, however one change to the new NHC track forecast is that it is not as fast as is being shown by the model trackers. Global model fields suggest that Elida's low- to mid-level circulation will get pulled northward by increasing shear (which is reflected by the model trackers), leaving the surface circulation to the south. Given this discrepancy, the NHC forecast is to the south of most of the guidance to account for the actual location of the surface center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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