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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-09 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at 40 kt. The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5. This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about 2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble. Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend. In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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