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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-07-04 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY EASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * JAMAICA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF * FLORIDA BAY * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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