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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-07-02 10:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020849 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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