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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-07-01 16:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 011448 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) X(32) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 31(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MARTINIQUE 34 X 16(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 34(34) 39(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 33(33) 37(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 80(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BARBADOS 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBADOS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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