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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-06-29 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Several microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia continues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a convective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or so, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm activity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt tropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the northeasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only allows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear is forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected by cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated. Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about 10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. Most of the global models indicate that the ridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast flow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until dissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which is in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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