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Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-06-29 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290838 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Emilia has changed little in organization since the previous advisory, with the convection continuing to be displaced to the west and southwest of the low-level center by 15-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period, and the track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. The dynamical model guidance suggests that the shear should gradually decrease during the next 24-48 h. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track decrease during this time, and it is uncertain if Emilia will be able to take advantage of the more favorable upper-level winds. The new forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing slight strengthening during this time. After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to move over cool enough waters to cause steady weakening, and Emilia is currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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