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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-06-29 16:55:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291455 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain 335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model consensus. Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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