je.st
news
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-06-30 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300248 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst, beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to -70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection, though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB. The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter, the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24 hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after moving over land. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||