je.st
news
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-06-30 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 843 WTPZ45 KNHC 300835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct. Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected consensus solution. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics