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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-07-29 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80 deg C. There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. An eye is not yet evident in the imagery, however. Erick's current intensity estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady strengthening. Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation. Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt. A mid-level ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward track. The track models suggest a slight bend toward the west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward excursions. The new official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run shows a track that is even a little farther to the south. The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than previously estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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