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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-07-29 16:57:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery. Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does not depart from the previous one. Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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