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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 49
2020-11-12 15:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121447 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula. Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the western Atlantic on Saturday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the latest guidance did not require much cross-track change. Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this afternoon. 2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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