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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 46
2020-11-11 21:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 83.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported St. Petersburg. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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