je.st
news
Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-08 10:45:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern appears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a long band wrapping around the western and southern side of the circulation. However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the cyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level center is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the main convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear analyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear affecting the cyclone. One of the ASCAT passes showed believable 37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/12. Although Fausto has not gained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone moving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude. The latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding, which should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west- northwestward heading until day 4 or 5. By that time, the cyclone is expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which should result in a more westerly motion. The NHC track forecast is only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster. The NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better initialization of the cyclone. Except for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear, the large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for intensification over the short term. Beyond two days, thermodynamic conditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and the shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours. These negative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous forecast and is near the mult-model consensus. It should be noted that the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature that does not intensify further during the forecast period. Thus a plausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an open trough within a few days for reasons unknown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 9.5N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 9.9N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||