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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-08 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081449 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Fausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the past few hours, with little evidence of banding features. The center is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images, but microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The upper-level outflow is well-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm. The tropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and warm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would favor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears to be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening. Global models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system weakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the unfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast is a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to the model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or 280/12. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. By days 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. At the end of the forecast period, it is expected that Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the lower-tropospheric steering flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 9.7N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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