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Tropical Storm FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-26 01:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 252331 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40 KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2300Z 19.2N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 20.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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